Advanced Modeling and Forecasting – Answering tough questions quantitatively

Course Details

Advanced Modeling and Forecasting
Troy Magennis

Holborn Bars, London

6th Apr 2017 , 9.30am - 5.30pm

Troy Workshop Bundle - Book Troy's 2 Day Comprehensive Forecasting Workshop.

Book this workshop along with Advanced Modeling and Forecasting and receive a £200 discount; combined 2 day workshop price £990 + VAT. 

Following on from the Forecasting using Data workshop (a pre-requisite), this workshop focuses on building more complex interactive models that can be experimented upon to find optimal solutions. This one-day workshop introduces advanced modeling and Monte Carlo techniques that will allow you to answer tougher questions and the economic impact of possible decisions.

Key outcomes for the day include:
• What type of questions do we model and how do we choose an approach to answering these questions.
• An approach to building models that capture the major assumptions that can be tested and confirmed.
• How to build and use simulation models.
• What tools are available for modeling, what are the pros and cons of each.
• Finding out what inputs cause the largest impact.
• How to compare what has occurred and correct models.

If you are responsible for quantifying the impact of process or portfolio decisions, this workshop will provide a variety of tools and ways to approach answering with confidence. The techniques are reliable for use across any software development process such as, Scrum, Kanban or combinations (like SAFe).

Modeling is best taught through experience. The practical exercises for the day will be working on solutions to the current groups development process questions.

Multiple tools will be discussed and demonstrated, including:
SenseAdapt by Ripple Rock
KanbanSim and ScrumSim by Focused Objective
• Spreadsheet solutions in Google sheets and Microsoft Excel
Tableau Desktop by Tableau an online Monte Carlo tool

Troy introducing the agenda for course:

Goals of Modeling
• Asking the right questions
• How uncertain is certain enough
• Deciding (honestly) if its possible to get an answer

Modeling Strategies
• Types of models
• Back-testing / Machine Learning
• Assumption based modelling
• Categorization, Anomaly Detection, Forecasting

Simulation Models
• Forecasting Models
• Interactive "What-if" Models

Modeling Tools
• SenseAdapt by Ripple Rock
• KanbanSim and ScrumSim by Focused Objective
• Spreadsheet solutions in Google sheets and Microsoft Excel
• Tableau Desktop by Tableau
• an online Monte Carlo tool

Sensitivity Analysis
• What is sensitivity analysis
• Choosing what is significant
• Examples
o What skills impact flow most
o What delays impact date most

Tracking Progress and Correcting Models
• Overfitting
o Context changes
o Concept Drift
• Periodicity / Seasonality

Have attended the Forecasting using Data workshop.

People responsible for quantifying the cost, delivery dates or impact of process or portfolio decisions. People responsible for building economic models on software projects and teams.

No specific statistical or mathematical knowledge is necessary, but be comfortable adding and subtracting numbers

This course doesn’t offer any industry certification. Much of the material is consistent with the risk management concepts in the PMBOK (PMI), and consistent with many Agile certifications.